“Forensically Sound” or Reckless? You Decide.

Justifying the Voucherization of Florida’s Public Education System

In his first one-on-one interview, newly appointed Florida Education Commissioner, Richard Corcoran, laid out his vision for public education in Florida. (For the record, Commissioner Corcoran claims he is merely expressing Governor-elect DeSantis’ vision for education in Florida.)

SPOILER ALERT: Their plan involves expanding vouchers. Of course, this is no surprise. Last year, when he was still Speaker of the House, Corcoran told a Lakewood Ranch crowd that “if Florida were to “voucherize” the entire school system it would transform education for the better.” Vouchers-for-all is definitely his goal.

When asked what sort of overhauls Floridians should expect with the new administration, Mr. Corcoran said he and Governor DeSantis want to quit experimenting on our kids and look at proven results. This would be music to the ears of public school parents who are tired of having their children used as guinea pigs in recent education schemes such as competency based computer instruction (for example, iReady), mandatory test-based 3rd grade retention, Common Core Math and high stakes testing.

Sadly, those are not the experiments Mr. Corcoran is talking about (watch at 1:20):

“I think that there’s methodologies that have been out there that are proven, that we know get great results… look at our Corporate Tax Credit Scholarship program, it’s been in existence for maybe 20 years in Florida, over 100,000… 100% are low income and poor… 70% are minorities, 75% give or take are from a single mom… and we know now forensically, we’ve looked and said that population of children compared to the population of children trapped in a traditional schools that’s not performing or failing, that these kids are 40%… 40 not 4, not 10, not 15… 40% more likely to go on to college and achieve greatness… that’s staggering. So how do we say, now that we know that we have that system, lets allow more kids into that system, fund it more to get those kids to have that opportunity that other people have. Those are the kinds of things that are out there that we know are proven forensically, that because of the status quo, because of this fiefdom over here or this power group over here, we won’t let them go there… well, that’s got to stop.”

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/one-on-one-with-floridas-next-education-commissioner-richard-corcoran/67-5aead9dd-aecf-474d-9e60-30334d2d4a34

For the last year or so, Mr. Corcoran has been quoting that 40% number… lets take a closer look to see how “forensically sound” it is. In September 2017, the Urban Institute published a report by Matthew Chingos and Daniel Kuehn titled “The Effects of Statewide Private School Choice on College Enrollment and Graduation.” We have written about it before. It looked at the impact of the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship (FTCS) on college enrollment and degree attainment. This is the report Mr. Corcoran has been referring to.

Previous studies in Louisiana, Indiana and Ohio have shown that private school voucher programs had a negative impact on test scores/student achievement. Students in those programs scored lower on standardized tests than the students that had remained in public school. Though Florida’s voucher program is mandated to report annual progress to the State, the formal study of the effects of the FTCS on student achievement/test scores is complicated. [FTCS students are required to take a standard test annually but most do not take the Florida Standards Assessment (FSA), required for all public school students, so direct comparison cannot be made with their public school cohorts. Per SUFS, annual evaluation of FTCS recipients shows “they make about a year’s worth of progress in a year’s time.”] Ed Reform researchers, when unable to show a positive impact of vouchers on test scores, are now questioning whether test scores are really the best measure of student success, after all. For the first time, this Urban Institute report looked at the impacts beyond high school of a statewide private school choice program.

It is probably important to note here that this Urban Institute study was not peer reviewed, the results have not been duplicated and it was funded by such education reform giants as Jeb’s Foundation for Excellence in Education and the Walton Family Foundation. The Walton Family Foundation is also a major donor to Step Up For Students (SUFS), the sponsor of the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship program. It is also important to note that “achievement of greatness” was never measured. (In a nutshell, you might want to be suspicious of any attempts to use this study’s results to guide policy.)

The study looked at over 10,000 low-income students in Florida who used FTCS to attend private schools and compared them to some 50,000 children with similar backgrounds and academic performance who never participated in the voucher program. The study looked at enrollment and degree attainment rates in Florida’s community colleges and 4 year universities. Enrollment in out-of-state colleges, private colleges or trade schools was not examined.

On average, FTCS recipients were approximately 15% more likely to enroll in public colleges in Florida than their public school counterparts:

• For FTCS students who attended private school in grades 3-7, 45% enrolled in a public college in Florida within two years of their expected graduation, compared to 39% of students in public school (a 15.4% increase).
• For FTCS students who attended private school in grades 8-12, 48% went to college, compared to 42% who attended public high schools (a 14.3% increase).

Students who enrolled in the FTCS program in elementary school and those who remained in the program for 4 or more years were more likely to enroll in community college.

• Most of the FTCS students (61 percent) only remained in the FTCS program for one or two years.
• Students who participated for only one year appear to have received little benefit, whereas students who participated for four or more years had increased community college enrollment by 14 to 18%. These effect sizes translated into increases 37 to 43 percent (for students who participated for four or more years, 37% for those who entered during high school, and 43% for those who entered in elementary school and remained 4 or more years). This is where Mr. Corcoran’s 40% claim comes in.
• Only 24% of the study’s FTCS participants remained in the FTCS program for 4 or more years.

Some FTCS accepting schools were better at increasing college enrollment than others:

• Catholic and non-Christian religious schools (primarily Muslim and Jewish) were the most effective in increasing college enrollment, although relatively few students attend these schools via FTCS.
• Using FTCS to attend a Catholic school also has a significant positive impact on enrollment in four-year public universities.
• Attending a non-Catholic Christian schools was less effective in increasing college enrollment.
• Attending a nonreligious private school did not have a significant average impact, either positive or negative.
• Attending private schools established before 2003 had a larger impact on college enrollment than attending those established after 2003. These schools enrolled a smaller share of FTCS students.
• Schools that appear to rely more heavily on the FTCS program (where most of their student population is on FTCS vouchers) and those that appear to have opened after 2003 (perhaps established to take advantage of the voucher program), do not have estimated positive impacts as large as schools less reliant on the FTCS program and are not always statistically distinguishable from zero.

There was little measurable effect on degree attainment, suggesting the students were more likely to enroll in college but no better prepared to be successful there than their public school peers:

• For students who entered the FTCS program in elementary or middle school, there was an increase of 0.6 percentage points in associate degree attainment.
• There was no significant difference for students who entered the FTCS program in high school.

As stated in the report’s Executive Summary. “This study finds that the nation’s largest private school choice program helps get students into college, but too many still fail to earn degrees.”

The study was summarized in The Miami Herald, where the author summarized it this way:

“It means that for the kids who took advantage of this choice on average it worked out OK,” said Matthew Chingos, a co-author of the report. He added, however, that participation in the program did not improve students’ graduation rates. “These results are positive, but you don’t go ‘oh wow’ just yet.”

Oh wow. Just “OK.”

FTCS students did enroll in community college in somewhat greater rates but the vast majority did not graduate. These results are not “staggering” and one could say the majority did not “achieve greatness.” This is NOT a ringing endorsement for massive expansion of the FTCS program just yet.

Author Matt Chingos seems to agree. When he discussed his initial study’s results with reporter Jeffrey Solochek for his Tampa Bay Times’ Gradebook podcast, he was cautious not to oversell his results. During the podcast interview, Mr. Chingos suggested more study was needed. He also suggested that specific policy recommendations should not be made based on one study, but felt his study was important because it looked at a statewide voucher program’s long term outcomes for the first time. He urged caution in over-interpreting the data, especially given the reports from other states suggesting voucher students had lower test scores and graduation rates.

Worthy of Repeating: More study was needed… Specific policy recommendations should not be made based on one study… Urged caution in over-interpreting the data… Mr. Corcoran, are you listening?

On the day the Urban Institute study was published, the pro-voucher forces had their PR machines out in full force. Step Up for Students’ blog, Redefined, celebrated: “FL private school choice students more likely to get to college, get degrees.” Betsy DeVos’ American Federation for Children (where SUFS’s founder John Kirtley serves as Vice Chairman) issued a press release calling the report “groundbreaking” and claiming the research showed “scholarship recipients have better long-term outcomes.” In the release, Greg Brock, Executive Director for the American Federation for Children, celebrated the results, claiming they confirmed what he had already know to be true: that “private school choice programs provide families, especially disadvantaged families, greater opportunities to achieve academic success.” He went on to make a call to action:

“We hope policymakers, philanthropists, and practitioners of educational choice programs will look to these results as confirmation of the success of America’s largest private school choice program and as encouragement to expand K-12 options for families across the country.”

https://www.federationforchildren.org/release-groundbreaking-new-school-choice-research/

It appears that Commissioner Corcoran has heeded their call.

Not all responses to the report were positive. In The Miami Herald, Samuel Abrams, director of the National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education at Teachers College, Columbia University, “criticized the study’s methodology as flawed, saying that students who had the energy and motivation to get accepted and remain at private schools may already have an edge compared to their peers in public schools.” We, also, questioned whether the study showed a positive effect of the voucher program or the negative impacts of florida’s test and punish accountability on low income students.

FSU Physics Professor Paul Cottle, in his blog Bridge to Tomorrow, admonished those celebrating the results. In his interpretation, the study did show slightly more students enrolled in college but the low degree completion rates suggested the program did not prepare these students to be successful once they got there. He suggested the report should have been a time for reflection not gloating:

“Regular district schools, charter schools, tax credit scholarship schools all send many students to college who are not prepared to succeed there.  But as far as I can recall, the tax credit scholarship schools are first group to brag about it.”

https://bridgetotomorrow.wordpress.com/2017/10/05/urban-institute-report-on-floridas-tax-credit-scholarship-program-should-have-been-an-occasion-for-reflection-instead-it-became-a-flawed-bragging-point/

It is interesting to note that, in November 2017 (2 months following the initial report), Mr. Chingos published a second paper titled “Are low-quality private schools on the rise in Florida?” This paper was NOT funded (nor celebrated) by the Waltons or other reformers as far as we can tell. In it Chingos notes that his original study was based on students who first participated in FTCS between 2004 and 2010 and, since then, Florida’s program has nearly tripled in size. He found that, when compared to 2010, “lower impact voucher schools” (those enrolling a greater percentage of FTCS students) have grown much more rapidly than schools which (in his study) had larger positive impacts. He concludes that his new analysis indicates that participation in the FTCS program has shifted toward schools with weaker track records of improving student outcomes, suggesting that the average effect of FTCS participation on college enrollment may decline in the near future.

IN SUMMARY, it appears our new Commissioner of Education wants to rapidly expand funding to Florida’s Tax Credit Scholarship/Voucher program based on the results of one privately funded, non-peer reviewed report which demonstrated that low income FTCS students, who attend certain private schools long enough, are somewhat more likely to enroll in a community college but are not prepared to succeed there. The study’s own author urged caution in over-interpreting the data, stating more studies are needed and that specific policy recommendations should not be made based on this one study. New analysis indicates that participation in the FTCS program has shifted toward schools with weaker track records of improving student outcomes, warning that the average effect of FTCS participation on college enrollment may decline in the near future.

These results are not “staggering,” they are concerning. Rapidly expanding the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship program based on this single study with only cautiously optimistic results is not “forensically sound,” it is reckless.

No post about Florida’s Tax Credit Scholarship program would be complete without a link to the Orlando Sentinel’s 2017 Schools Without Rules series which highlighted how these Florida private schools “rake in” nearly $1 billion/year in state scholarships with little oversight. It describes a system “so weakly regulated that some schools hire teachers without college degrees, hold classes in aging strip malls and falsify fire-safety and health records.” They discovered the Department of Education provides ZERO academic oversight for these schools, some of which teach students that dinosaurs and humans lived together, as well as other instances of “distorted history and science lessons that are outside mainstream academics.” Taxpayers should question whether such schools can really prepare students to “achieve greatness.”

Florida’s public school parents would love for the State to stop experimenting with our kids’ education. Florida’s taxpayers should demand that they stop experimenting with our tax dollars, as well. Expanding the Tax Credit Scholarship system will do neither. Alas, if only our new Commissioner of Education was open to hearing our call…