As Predicted: Florida’s Voucher Expansion is Gutting Public Education

The cost of universal school vouchers is breaking Florida’s K-12 funding formula. Since the passage of HB1 in 2023, the cost of vouchers has soared. But here’s the problem: most of the students receiving these vouchers were never enrolled in public schools to begin with. Now, lawmakers are struggling to fund every child already in private or homeschool—and to balance the budget, they’re cutting advanced coursework and Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs in public high schools.

We tried to warn them…

Attend enough education committee meetings in Tallahassee, and you’ll hear lawmakers say, “School choice isn’t going anywhere.” Unfortunately for them, neither are Florida’s public schools. The state now has to fund two parallel systems: one for the nearly 3 million students still enrolled in public schools, and another for the hundreds of thousands already in private or home education, all out of the same funding formula. And the gutting of public schools is predicted continue for a few more years…

Florida’s April 11, 2025, State Education Estimating Conference report predicts that over the next five years, public school enrollment will decline by 66,000 students, while voucher use will increase by 240,000 students—most of them already outside the public system. These vouchers, known as Family Empowerment Scholarships (FES), are Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) funded directly through Florida’s public school formula, the Florida Education Finance Program (FEFP).

WINK News recently summarized the report by saying:

“Florida’s traditional public school enrollment is projected to decline significantly over the next five years, driven by the expansion of school voucher programs.” They concluded “Overall, the growing popularity of school choice programs in Florida is reshaping the educational landscape, leading to decreased public school enrollment and increased financial challenges for traditional public schools.”

But to paraphrase Inigo Montoya: I do not think that report means what they think it means.

Yes, there’s a projected drop in public school students—but 66,000 out of nearly 3 million is just 2.5%. That’s not a “significant decline.” Public school enrollment is predicted to remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, even with 240,000 new voucher recipients expected, only about 70,000 of those are projected to come from public schools. This is not a mass exodus but it will cause “increased financial challenges for traditional public schools.”

Where are the new vouchers coming from? The State Education Estimating Conference report tells the story.

Yes, there’s a projected drop in public school students—but 66,000 out of nearly 3 million is just 2.5%. That’s not a “significant decline.” Public school enrollment remains relatively stable. Meanwhile, even with 240,000 new voucher recipients expected, less than 70,000 of those are projected to come from public schools. This is not a mass exodus.

So where Will the new voucher users coming from Over the Next 5 Years? The report tells the story.

Key Takeaways:

• Public School Enrollment Remains Relatively Stable The report predicts only a 2.5% decline in brick-and-mortar public school enrollment over five years—hardly the collapse some headlines suggest.
• Most Voucher Growth Will Not Be From Public School Transfers Of the 242,161 projected new FES recipients, just 66,000 are estimated to be former public school students.
• FES-UA (Special Needs) Expansion Is Driving Growth The largest increase—151,177 students—is from the expansion of FES-UA vouchers, designed for students with special needs. These ESAs allow families to homeschool or enroll their children in private schools. But private schools aren’t required to provide federally mandated special education services or accept students with disabilities. Are we pushing Florida’s special needs students into homeschooling?
• FTC Recipients Are Being Shifted Into the FEFP Florida’s Personalized Education Program (PEP) for homeschoolers is growing more slowly than expected. However, it IS displacing students who previously received Florida Tax Credit (FTC) scholarships—which were funded outside the FEFP—into FES-EO vouchers, which are funded inside the FEFP. That shift represents another 36,041 students added to the public funding burden.The PEP program launched in 2023 with 20,000 students and was expected to expand by 40,000 students per year. In 2024–25, it didn’t hit the 60,000-student cap. It’s now projected to serve 84,500 students in 2025–26, and participation is expected to max out around 92,000 by 2027–28—even after the cap is lifted. But even without rapid growth, it’s causing significant funding shifts as former FTC students move into the FEFP.
• Universal Vouchers Now Cover Even the Wealthiest Families As of 2023, vouchers are available to any child eligible to attend public school—regardless of income. That includes students already enrolled in exclusive, high-tuition private schools. These families were already paying tuition out of pocket; now, they’re getting public dollars for it.

Budget Implications:

While some school districts have seen large numbers of students switch to vouchers, others have seen little enrollment impact. But every district will be affected—because voucher students are now part of the FEFP funding formula.

This year’s budget increases are largely being used to pay for new voucher students to the funding formula—and, because of how the formula works, the impact on public school funding is huge. Existing public school students advancing a grade receive modest funding increases (around $50 per year), but new voucher students receive the full $8,000–$9,000 allocation. That’s a massive financial burden. And one that is predicted to continue for the next few years. As Senator Burgess said, of the $984 million increase in the Senate’s proposed 2025-26 budget, $700 million is going to voucher students.

Ultimately, the problem isn’t public school enrollment decline—it’s that the state is now funding an entirely new system of students within the public school funding formula – and that, as predicted, is what’s breaking the budget and defunding Florida’s public schools.