Ignoring The Cost of Vouchers Is Undermining Florida’s Fiscal Future

“I never predicted that it would be so tough (to pass a budget) with a Republican supermajority.” Florida State Representative Lawrence McClure

Last Thursday, Florida legislative leaders announced that formal budget conferencing would be delayed until at least the week of Memorial Day. The extended session, focused on finalizing the 2025–26 state budget, is scheduled to end June 6—but House leaders are already suggesting negotiations may need to continue through the end of June to avoid a government shutdown. Meanwhile, the cost of the prolonged session continues to rise.

Latest Developments (as of May 19, 2025, via Florida Politics):

House Republicans, led by Speaker Daniel Perez, initially proposed a broad sales tax cut. That proposal met resistance from Governor Ron DeSantis and Senate leaders, who argued it would disproportionately benefit tourists and non-residents while doing little to help Florida families and seniors.

In response, the House dropped the recurring sales tax reduction and shifted its focus toward cutting recurring state spending. Senate budget chief Ed Hooper noted the House’s new proposal pays special attention to the business rent tax—a top priority for Speaker Perez.

Still, tensions remain high. Senator Hooper voiced frustration over the House’s shifting stance, saying they “keep moving the goalpost.” In contrast, Rep. McClure, who leads the House’s budget negotiations, emphasized the House’s consistent goal: reduce recurring expenditures to avoid future deficits.

What Lawmakers Aren’t Talking About (But Should Be):

When Rep. McClure discusses their “consistent focus on curbing recurring expenditures to prevent future deficits” are they looking at the growing, unaccountable, $5 Billion voucher giveaway? They should be.

Despite an expected $2 billion surplus this year, both House and Senate budget proposals shortchange Florida’s public schools. Proposed increases for public schools fall below the rate of inflation, and $292 million is slashed from performance-based funding for advanced coursework. At the same time, over 70% of proposed K–12 budget increases are being funneled into vouchers. And the situation is only getting worse.

According to the state’s latest Long-Range Financial Outlook, if current trends continue, Florida could face a $2.8 billion deficit next year, ballooning to $6.9 billion by 2027. One of the biggest drivers? PreK–12 education costs—specifically, the expense of covering voucher students who were never enrolled in public schools.

When HB1 passed in 2023, expanding universal vouchers for private school tuition and homeschooling, its fiscal impact was severely underestimated. Lawmakers predicted a 50% participation rate among private school students, with an added cost of just $112 million for 2023–24. There was no long-term cost analysis.

Big mistake.

Rising Voucher Costs at a Glance:

• In 2022-23 (prior to HB1’s expansion ): just over $2 Billion [serving 147K Family Empowerment Scholarship (FES) students and ~100K Tax Credit Scholarship (FTC) recipients]
• in 2023-24: almost $3 billion [serving 221K FES students and ~100K FTC and PEP/Homeschool recipients]
• In 2024-25: just over $4 billion [serving 357K FES students and ~100K FTC and PEP/Homeschool recipients]
• Predicted in 2025-26: just over $5 billion [serving 446K FES students and ~100K FTC and PEP/Homeschool recipients]

These numbers represent a massive funding shift to families and schools that, in many cases, never participated in the public system. The growth in voucher participation has not resulted in an equivalent decrease in public school enrollment. Hundreds of millions now go to wealthy families and elite private schools, while public schools struggle—and its going to get worse..

The April 2025 State Education Estimating Conference forecasts that by 2029, public school enrollment will decline by just 2% or 66,000 students, while voucher use will rise by 240,000 students—mostly among those already outside the public system. That means an added $1.5 billion annually just to cover new voucher recipients.

The Bottom Line:
It’s somewhat encouraging that lawmakers are no longer competing over who can deliver the biggest tax cut. But if neither chamber is willing to address the true driver of unsustainable recurrent spending—voucher expansion—then Florida’s education system and budget stability will remain at risk.